Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6e5f…e751 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$261 (+45%) realized +$292 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days+$145
14 days+$216
30 days+$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$153
sports 31% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +142.5% +119.4% 50% 50% +63.5%
≤30d 38 +30.7% +18.3% 42% 42% +21.0%
≤90d 38 +30.7% +18.3% 42% 42% +21.0%
all 38 +30.7% +18.3% 42% 42% +21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.3% 42% +21.0%
10% +7.0% 42% +9.4%
15% -3.4% 39% -1.1%
20% -12.9% 34% -10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +95% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$12 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$292
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage16d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-37%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score No 77¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 28 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 25 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $10 +$190 +1845%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $16 +$16 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$8 +158%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $28 +$16 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $36 +$39 +109%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $25 +$19 +76%
Mexico to win the second half? Jun 19 $20 +$31 +152%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $25 +$6 +26%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $19 −$6 -33%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 +$6 +60%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 11 $20 +$44 +216%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +38%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $10 +$15 +152%
Luis Chávez: 2+ shots Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Álvaro Fidalgo: 1+ assists Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria $6 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 77¢ $25 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 1h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $25 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 2h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3d
Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes $10 3d
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $16 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3d
Mexico to win the second half? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 9d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $15 9d
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $15 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $5 9d
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 9d
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $10 14d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $28 15d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina $3 15d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 15d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 15d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 15d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 15d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 16d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 16d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.41 · official $9.41 (match) · 75 history records