Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e5a…a270 crypto 489 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$212 (+2%) realized +$245 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%237W / 225L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day115.9pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$530
7 days+$1,027
14 days+$115
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$495
sports 37% +$31
other 20% +$543
weather 4% −$57
economics 1% −$2
tech 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -3.2% -12.4% 51% 45% +14.4%
≤30d 462 -6.1% -15.1% 51% 43% -9.1%
≤90d 462 -6.1% -15.1% 51% 43% -9.1%
all 462 -6.1% -15.1% 51% 43% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 43% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 30% -17.8%
15% -30.6% 18% -25.8%
20% -37.4% 10% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$362
Realized+$245
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses237 / 225
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions21
Markets (closed)462 / 489
History coverage16d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day115.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 462 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $109 $108 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $52 $16 −$36 (-69%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? Yes 35¢ 45¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Yes 37¢ 41¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 25? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 25? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 25? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 25? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 25? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 25? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 25? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 25? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 25? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25? Jun 24 $6 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? Jun 24 $6 −$5 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 25? Jun 24 $6 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25? Jun 24 $5 −$2 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 25? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $304 +$214 +70%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $6 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $3 +$3 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? Jun 23 $2 +$2 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 23 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 24? Jun 23 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 23 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? Jun 23 $3 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 +$5 +244%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 +$107 +105%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $30 +$139 +468%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $506 +$525 +104%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $19 +$29 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? Jun 22 $6 −$2 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? Jun 22 $9 −$2 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 23? Jun 22 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Jun 22 $2 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 23? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +30%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $102 −$59 -58%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $268 +$128 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 20¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 45m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 25? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 11¢ $196 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic BUY 36¢ $306 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $111 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $362.27 · official $953.25 · 2274 history records