Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6E 0x6e58…ad1d other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$34 (+85%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 193d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$34
politics 25% +$1
sports 7% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +132.9% +110.7% 100% 100% +105.0%
≤30d 2 +132.9% +110.7% 100% 100% +105.0%
≤90d 2 +132.9% +110.7% 100% 100% +105.0%
all 4 +57.4% +42.4% 75% 75% +64.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.4% 75% +64.9%
10% +28.8% 50% +49.1%
15% +16.3% 50% +34.7%
20% +4.9% 50% +21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +127% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×4.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.7 per $1 lost it wins $12.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage193d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $9 +$23 +253%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 17 $18 +$11 +64%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 60¢ $32 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 79d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 83d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 29¢ $29 92d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 92d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records