Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e56…5b78 politics 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%18W / 102L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$30
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$24
other 26% −$20
sports 26% −$19
crypto 7% +$5
culture 5% −$1
world 4% −$3
economics 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 63 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 104 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.8%
all 120 -0.6% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses18 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage100d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $113 −$1 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $67 −$3 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $324 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $139 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $928 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $308 +$1 +0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $326 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $153 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $39 $0 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $63 −$2 -3%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $111 −$2 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 10 $45 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $331 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $55 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $203 −$3 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $40 −$1 -4%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $59 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $40 $0 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $54 −$2 -3%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $127 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $264 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $269 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $328 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $106 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $119 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $51 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $51 6h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 6h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 13h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $48 14h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 21h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $42 22h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $42 27h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $50 27h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $50 32h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $63 33h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $67 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $63 39h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $64 44h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $54 44h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $53 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $46 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $4 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $36 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $46 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $46 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $40 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $40 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $36 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.83 · official $49.83 (match) · 513 history records