Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6e54…2ed4 crypto 1219 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,327 (-2%) realized −$2,327 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate94%1152W / 68L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$706est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$1,262
sports 27% +$1,663
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -13.3% -21.5% 47% 47% -7.3%
≤30d 38 -1.9% -11.3% 61% 37% -6.3%
≤90d 1150 +0.3% -9.3% 94% 1% -9.5%
all 1220 +0.8% -8.8% 94% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 1% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.5% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$235 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,327
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1152 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$706
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1220 / 1219
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$107
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1220 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $186 −$186 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10,145 +$2,510 +25%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,015 +$985 +97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,015 +$1,068 +105%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,015 +$985 +97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,013 +$741 +73%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,014 +$946 +93%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,012 +$682 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,016 +$1,157 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,013 +$772 +76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,016 +$1,111 +109%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,016 +$1,256 +124%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,017 +$1,308 +129%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3,051 −$1,046 -34%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$125 +124%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $107 +$60 +56%
XRP Up or Down - April 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$4 -40%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $190 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $587 −$288 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $295 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 05 $288 −$288 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 05 $298 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 05 $6 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 05 $6 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 05 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 05 $296 +$4 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 05 $69 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 05 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 05 $299 +$1 +0%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 05 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 05 $298 +$2 +0%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 64¢ $12,656 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,013 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,014 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1,019 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,014 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,014 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,014 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,014 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,014 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1,013 17h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,013 20h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,015 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,015 26h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,015 38h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1,018 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,015 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1,013 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1,017 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1,016 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,014 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1,012 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1,016 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,013 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1,016 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,013 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,016 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1,016 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records