Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:46:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

6E 0x6e50…7fee other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$169 (+15%) realized +$203 · open −$34

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown28%max

Avg bet$127per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$566now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 145d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-19.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+19.0%	+7.7%	67%	67%	+23.6%
≤30d	3	+19.0%	+7.7%	67%	67%	+23.6%
≤90d	3	+19.0%	+7.7%	67%	67%	+23.6%
all	4	-10.8%	-19.3%	50%	50%	+12.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.3%	50%	+12.7%
10%	-27.0%	50%	+1.9%
15%	-34.0%	50%	-8.0%
20%	-40.5%	25%	-17.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$104 vs −$42 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage

Net worth$566

Realized+$203

Unrealized−$34

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions5

Markets (closed)4 / 9

History coverage145d

Avg bet$127

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown28%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	40¢	44¢	$200	$218	+$18 (+9%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	45¢	54¢	$150	$178	+$28 (+19%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$40	$40	−$0 (-0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	47¢	12¢	$110	$29	−$81 (-73%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET	Jun 19	$39	−$39	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$379	+$153	+40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Jun 19	$48	+$56	+117%
US government shutdown Saturday?	Jan 26	$45	−$45	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	45¢	$158	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$39	6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$105	6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	40¢	$212	6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	94¢	$532	9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$116	14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	SELL No	86¢	$104	22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$379	23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$43	35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	37¢	$48	35h
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY No	23¢	$7	145d
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY No	23¢	$38	145d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $565.79 · official $560.47 (match) · 13 history records