Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:59:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e4f…bb20 crypto 740 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (860 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$7,270 (+43%) realized +$7,272 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%376W / 655L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day859.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,561
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (860 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1031 -30.4% -37.0% 36% 32% -23.8%
≤30d 1031 -30.4% -37.0% 36% 32% -23.8%
≤90d 1031 -30.4% -37.0% 36% 32% -23.8%
all 1031 -30.4% -37.0% 36% 32% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover859.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.0% 32% -23.8%
10% ← realistic here -43.0% 27% -31.0%
15% -48.5% 21% -37.7%
20% -53.6% 17% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -82% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$7,272
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses376 / 655
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1031 / 740
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day859.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1031 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Down 65¢ 96¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 35¢ 4¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.99 · official $57.06 · 3500 history records