Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:04:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e4d…e0f2 crypto 276 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (322 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%273W / 2L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day322.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$22
politics 0% $0
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (322 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 275 +0.5% -9.0% 99% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 275 +0.5% -9.0% 99% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 275 +0.5% -9.0% 99% 0% -9.1%
all 275 +0.5% -9.0% 99% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover322.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 0% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$20 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses273 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)275 / 276
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day322.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.05 · official $8.05 (match) · 595 history records