Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:17:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6e49…54f6 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$62 (+15%) realized +$64 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%16W / 30L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$8
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$88
other 34% +$1
sports 9% −$7
crypto 3% −$6
weather 2% +$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +39.4% +26.2% 33% 33% +4.3%
≤30d 46 +28.2% +16.0% 35% 30% +7.6%
≤90d 46 +28.2% +16.0% 35% 30% +7.6%
all 46 +28.2% +16.0% 35% 30% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.0% 30% +7.6%
10% +4.9% 30% -2.7%
15% -5.3% 26% -12.1%
20% -14.6% 24% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$64
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses16 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions24
Markets (closed)46 / 70
History coverage28d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$2 (+30%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 16¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+143%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 15 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +526%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $1 $0 +33%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $1 +$2 +165%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +197%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 +$2 +199%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 06 $100 +$8 +8%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1 +$1 +83%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Cameroon vs Mali May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J May 28 $2 +$1 +50%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on May 27? May 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 27? May 27 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 26? May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 26? May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $2 +$85 +4253%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$3 +298%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $2 −$2 -77%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $2 +$2 +114%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 19? May 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $7 −$5 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $10 58m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 10¢ $5 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 11¢ $5 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 12¢ $1 4h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 18h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 24¢ $1 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 28h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes $1 28h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes $1 28h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 46¢ $2 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 38h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 40h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 40h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 41h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 75¢ $42 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 80¢ $40 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 63¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $100 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 46¢ $1 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 100¢ $3 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 37¢ $1 7d
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 7d
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 7d
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 7d
Will the match end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.12 · official $129.12 (match) · 122 history records