Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

6E 0x6e47…34a2 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ bot/MM pace (730 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$4,962 (+1%) realized +$3,912 · open +$1,050

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +73% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip

Net edge+20%after slip

Net WR13%break-even

Win rate73%22W / 8L

Whale WR50%big bets

Drawdown18%max

Avg bet$10,415per market

Trades / day729.7pace

Fees−$5,639est.

Kalshi-fit69%portable

Net worth$24,850now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (730 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +13%

net ROI/market (all)+56.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	30	+72.8%	+56.3%	73%	13%	-6.0%
≤30d	30	+72.8%	+56.3%	73%	13%	-6.0%
≤90d	30	+72.8%	+56.3%	73%	13%	-6.0%
all	30	+72.8%	+56.3%	73%	13%	-6.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover729.7 tr/day

realistic slip~18%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+56.3%	13%	-6.0%
10%	+41.4%	13%	-15.0%
15% ← realistic here	+27.7%	13%	-23.2%
20%	+15.2%	7%	-30.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +73% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 50% (≥$13,967) neutral

Persistence

early +3% → late +142% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

36.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$531 vs −$219 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.67 per $1 lost it wins $6.67

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$24,850

Realized+$3,912

Unrealized+$1,050

Win rate (resolved)73%

Wins / losses22 / 8

Whale WR (big bets)50%

Est. fees paid−$5,639

Open positions2

Markets (closed)30 / 32

History coverage3d

Avg bet$10,415

Trades / day729.7

Drawdown18%

Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 30 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	No	34¢	36¢	$23,800	$24,850	+$1,050 (+4%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	No	30¢	30¢	$0	$0	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	Jun 22	$8,123	+$5,246	+65%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$17,548	+$474	+3%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 21	$20	$0	+2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$509	+$14	+3%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$35,078	$0	-0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	Jun 21	$8,366	+$208	+2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 21	$3,819	+$109	+3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$16,000	$0	-0%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	Jun 21	$16,163	$0	-0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 21	$16,564	+$32	+0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$409	$0	-0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$25,850	$0	+0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$7,981	+$560	+7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$13,800	+$100	+1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 20	$656	+$14	+2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees	Jun 20	$10,200	$0	-0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$5,864	+$102	+2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$30,065	$0	+0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$13,967	+$170	+1%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 19	$2,503	+$33	+1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$16,102	−$1,751	-11%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$8,592	+$4,120	+48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 19	$11	−$1	-5%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$101	+$2	+2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$1,687	+$44	+3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$11,997	+$300	+2%
Spread: United States (-1.5)	Jun 19	$4	$0	+2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$8,582	$0	-0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 19	$5,800	+$67	+1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$5,735	+$88	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$7	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$340	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$340	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$340	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$568	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$250	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$13	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$18	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$8	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$74	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$2	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$26	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$5	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$30	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$4	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$26	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$34	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$1	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$3	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$26	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$2	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$50	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$1	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$1	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$5	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$26	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$15	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$5	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$4	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	34¢	$1	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,850.16 · official $24,849.81 (match) · 1909 history records