Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6E 0x6e46…60d6 sports 418 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$843 (-2%) realized −$860 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%252W / 165L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days+$301
14 days+$564
30 days+$814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$13
sports 48% −$1,033
world 1% −$71
politics 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +20.8% +9.3% 77% 54% -0.1%
≤30d 34 +18.3% +7.1% 71% 56% +1.0%
≤90d 222 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 49% -12.3%
all 417 +2.2% -7.6% 60% 52% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 52% -11.5%
10% -16.4% 42% -19.9%
15% -24.5% 35% -27.7%
20% -31.9% 24% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$71 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$860
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses252 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions1
Markets (closed)417 / 418
History coverage140d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 417 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 70¢ $202 $219 +$17 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $314 −$81 -26%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $153 −$153 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $298 +$100 +34%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $234 +$76 +32%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $294 +$146 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $132 +$88 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $310 +$2 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $352 +$7 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $104 +$96 +92%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $166 −$83 -50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $63 +$36 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $405 +$9 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $53 +$57 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $232 +$111 +48%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $58 +$48 +84%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $206 +$104 +50%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $64 +$46 +73%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $105 −$49 -47%
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $272 +$81 +30%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $83 +$86 +104%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $117 −$41 -35%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $261 −$45 -17%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $167 +$17 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $527 −$260 -49%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 3.5 May 31 $308 +$52 +17%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $421 +$73 +17%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $221 +$19 +9%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 May 24 $136 +$25 +19%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $204 −$15 -7%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $55 −$24 -43%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $50 −$26 -51%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $256 +$104 +41%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $202 +$118 +59%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5 May 22 $203 +$85 +42%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $103 +$77 +75%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $206 +$25 +12%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $101 −$29 -28%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $379 −$108 -28%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $169 −$80 -47%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 May 18 $299 +$111 +37%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $163 +$75 +46%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $200 +$87 +43%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $129 +$59 +46%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $111 +$44 +40%
SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to Score May 16 $52 +$28 +54%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $202 +$155 +77%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $207 +$19 +9%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 3.5 May 14 $310 +$96 +31%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $228 −$17 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 27¢ $132 34m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $204 35m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $59 44m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $149 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 51¢ $101 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 52¢ $105 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $165 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $196 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $1 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $1 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $35 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $298 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $153 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $234 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $244 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $219 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $1 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $4 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $18 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $207 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $70 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $103 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $90 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $32 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 68¢ $88 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 68¢ $157 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 68¢ $7 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $210 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.55 · official $218.55 (match) · 1406 history records