Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e44…21bc sports 278 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,347 (+1%) realized +$3,347 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%186W / 153L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,148per market
Trades / day117.0pace
Fees−$4,967est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,487
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -73.4% -75.9% 14% 12% -74.7%
≤30d 339 -12.6% -20.9% 55% 47% -19.1%
≤90d 339 -12.6% -20.9% 55% 47% -19.1%
all 339 -12.6% -20.9% 55% 47% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 47% -19.1%
10% -28.5% 36% -26.8%
15% ← realistic here -35.4% 20% -33.9%
20% -41.7% 10% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$1,195) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$340 vs −$657 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,347
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses186 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$4,967
Open positions0
Markets (closed)339 / 278
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$1,148
Trades / day117.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 339 Trades
no open positions (135 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $441 −$203 -46%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $910 −$908 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $303 −$262 -86%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $768 −$768 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $863 −$862 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $100 −$290 -291%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B Jun 17 $848 −$848 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $324 −$324 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $423 −$423 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $703 −$703 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $561 −$863 -154%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,542 −$1,432 -93%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $539 −$678 -126%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $764 −$764 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $604 −$604 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $510 −$344 -68%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual Jun 17 $938 −$696 -74%
LoL: Estral Esports vs INTZ e-Sports (BO3) - Circuito Desafiante Playo Jun 17 $151 −$151 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $216 −$216 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $652 −$652 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs Jun 17 $347 −$411 -118%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $360 −$360 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,195 −$1,195 -100%
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,046 −$1,046 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $366 −$366 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $440 −$440 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs 1win - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $401 −$401 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $468 −$468 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $438 −$771 -176%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $484 −$484 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,419 −$1,419 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,325 −$1,325 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $888 −$888 -100%
Dota 2: Aim Possible vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $105 −$112 -106%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Playoff Jun 17 $352 −$457 -130%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $550 −$550 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $356 −$356 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $552 −$552 -100%
LoL: Dark Passage vs Team Phoenix - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $172 −$176 -102%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $253 −$253 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,444 −$2,017 -82%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $170 −$108 -63%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 17 $1,089 −$1,089 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $649 −$649 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime 90¢ $109 11m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime 90¢ $488 13m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 72¢ $4 20m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 77¢ $507 21m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL PlayTime 100¢ $4 50m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 95¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL PlayTime 98¢ $509 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 92¢ $478 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $476 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 72¢ $150 2h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 72¢ $13 2h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 72¢ $180 2h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL Flame Team 100¢ $347 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 74¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 78¢ $187 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 78¢ $79 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL 4ikibamboni 23¢ $27 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL 4ikibamboni 25¢ $113 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL 4ikibamboni 43¢ $86 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL 4ikibamboni 43¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL 4ikibamboni 45¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL 4ikibamboni 45¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL 4ikibamboni 45¢ $6 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL 4ikibamboni 45¢ $6 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL 4ikibamboni 45¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL 4ikibamboni 45¢ $11 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL 4ikibamboni 45¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 40¢ $114 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 40¢ $95 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 40¢ $63 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records