Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e44…727f crypto 901 markets active 6d ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$764 (-3%) realized −$764 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate93%837W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$9
30 days−$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$197
weather 37% −$339
other 17% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -0.5% -10.0% 91% 4% -9.5%
≤30d 106 -0.7% -10.1% 93% 5% -12.8%
≤90d 410 -2.7% -11.9% 90% 5% -11.8%
all 901 -2.2% -11.5% 93% 4% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 4% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 1% -20.1%
15% -27.7% 1% -27.8%
20% -34.8% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$19 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$764
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses837 / 64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)901 / 901
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 901 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 10 Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $94 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 82¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $46 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? SELL No 96¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? SELL No 80¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? SELL No 73¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 82¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 74¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records