Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
6E 0x6e43…78d8 sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$132 (+9%) realized +$134 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$244
other 28% −$99
world 3% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +23.7% +11.9% 52% 50% +0.0%
≤30d 40 +23.7% +11.9% 52% 50% +0.0%
≤90d 40 +23.7% +11.9% 52% 50% +0.0%
all 40 +23.7% +11.9% 52% 50% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.9% 50% +0.0%
10% +1.2% 48% -9.5%
15% -8.6% 40% -18.3%
20% -17.5% 40% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$26 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$134
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)40 / 46
History coverage6d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 55¢ 54¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$18 +25%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $71 −$42 -59%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$13 -25%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$7 +64%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$103 +202%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$30 -59%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$30 +148%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$42 -83%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$31 +307%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$27 +54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +90%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 +$60 +196%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$2 -8%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +106%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +249%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $20 +$7 +34%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $30 +$4 +13%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $50 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $30 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $57 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $89 9h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 9h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 9h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 10h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 18¢ $8 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $20 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 55¢ $30 12h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 54¢ $30 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $17 15h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL No 59¢ $10 18h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $30 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 26h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.15 · official $208.15 (match) · 87 history records