Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6E
0x6e41…4c02
other · 90 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$11 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses34 / 54
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage516d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 2 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $108 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $57 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $32 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $25 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $71 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $10 $0 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $46 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $5 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $15 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $45 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $8 +$2 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $46 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $43 +$1 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $84 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $4 −$2 -50%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $18 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $5 $0 -5%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $9 $0 +4%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $58 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $64 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $12 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $74 +$1 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 10 $3 $0 -9%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $104 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% −$3
politics 27% −$8
sports 15% −$3
other 14% +$2
economics 2% −$1
finance 1% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $7 48m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $14 48m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $21 48m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $45 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $32 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $14 9h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $3 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $26 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $29 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $36 35h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $11 35h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $43 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $3 37h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $32 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $32 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 42¢ $15 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $9 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $25 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $24 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $17 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $18 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $47 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $26 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 25 -2.1% -11.4% 32% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 69 +3.5% -6.3% 32% 3% -9.6%
all 88 +8.2% -2.1% 39% 11% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 11% -9.9%
10% -11.4% 11% -18.5%
15% -20.0% 8% -26.4%
20% -27.8% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.25 · official $42.05 (match) · 394 history records