Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6E 0x6e40…a243 crypto 503 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$288 (-6%) realized −$288 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%198W / 304L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day53.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$259
14 days−$247
30 days−$563
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$560
politics 0% −$5
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 236 -14.4% -22.6% 37% 33% -22.1%
≤30d 502 -8.5% -17.2% 39% 34% -20.1%
≤90d 502 -8.5% -17.2% 39% 34% -20.1%
all 502 -8.5% -17.2% 39% 34% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 34% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 31% -27.7%
15% -32.4% 28% -34.7%
20% -39.0% 27% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$288
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses198 / 304
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)502 / 503
History coverage19d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day53.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 502 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 87¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 195 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.95 · official $6.95 (match) · 1327 history records