Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6E 0x6e3f…98be other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,258 (+47%) realized +$2,239 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$485per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$1,016now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days−$47
14 days−$47
30 days+$2,140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$2,186
other 37% +$97
crypto 3% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -20.0% -27.6% 33% 33% -14.2%
≤30d 8 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 50% +40.7%
≤90d 8 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 50% +40.7%
all 8 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 50% +40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 50% +40.7%
10% -21.4% 38% +27.2%
15% -29.0% 38% +14.9%
20% -36.0% 38% +3.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +56% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$651 vs −$116 · ×5.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.6 per $1 lost it wins $5.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$1,016
Realized+$2,239
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage48d
Avg bet$485
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $497 $583 +$86 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $500 $433 −$67 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $100 −$40 -40%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 25 $182 +$218 +120%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $200 +$200 +100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2,947 +$2,186 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals SELL Yes 23¢ $60 1h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $100 5h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $81 25h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $4 25h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $15 25h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $64 25h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $13 28h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $1 42h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $4 47h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $200 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $106 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $21 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $58 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $15 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $13 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $86 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $497 20d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $77 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $44 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $64 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $194 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,015.62 · official $1,015.62 (match) · 77 history records