Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:06:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e3e…d261 sports 1694 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1666W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$73
weather 18% +$15
other 16% +$13
crypto 2% +$1
finance 2% +$2
tech 1% +$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 187 +0.1% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1323 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 0% -9.6%
all 1691 -0.0% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1666 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1691 / 1694
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria Namibia 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Rory McIlroy lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the second round? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5 Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 15 above $235? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria BUY Namibia 100¢ $50 1h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $50 12h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 21h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 40h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 41h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 43h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 46h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 46h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 100¢ $50 2d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $47 3d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 100¢ $50 3d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 3d
Will Rory McIlroy lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the second round? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 4d
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group BUY TYLOO 100¢ $50 4d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.93 · official $149.93 (match) · 3500 history records