Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6E 0x6e3b…83fc other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,472 (-1%) realized −$1,473 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate18%23W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,170per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$955now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$20
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$1,381
politics 37% −$60
sports 18% −$25
world 2% −$6
culture 2% −$4
crypto 1% −$35
finance 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 -6.1% -15.1% 6% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 91 -10.8% -19.3% 10% 8% -11.1%
all 130 -0.9% -10.3% 18% 15% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 15% -10.4%
10% -18.9% 15% -19.0%
15% -26.7% 12% -26.8%
20% -33.9% 10% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,443) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$24 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$955
Realized−$1,473
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses23 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,170
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $633 $633 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $320 $322 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,986 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $638 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $638 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $850 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $6,466 −$7 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,944 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $966 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,780 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $684 −$1 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $58 +$67 +114%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2,022 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $380 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $151 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $233 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,589 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $270 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $214 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $286 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,738 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $300 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $263 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $260 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $207 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $280 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 07 $1,412 −$1,412 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,503 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,505 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $5,522 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $1,217 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $5,246 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $4,284 −$4 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,581 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $4,151 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $7,776 −$8 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $3,826 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $634 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $522 3h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $523 5h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $528 5h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $529 7h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $460 45h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $460 2d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $637 2d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $638 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $637 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $638 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $637 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $638 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $632 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $633 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $321 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $849 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $850 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $853 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $854 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $850 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $851 9d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $839 9d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $840 9d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $964 9d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $966 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $908 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $910 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $869 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $870 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $954.65 · official $954.65 (match) · 421 history records