Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:45:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6E 0x6e37…8374 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$363per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$5
other 37% −$1
world 4% −$4
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -2.8% -12.1% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 14 -1.7% -11.1% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage97d
Avg bet$363
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $1,429 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,310 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,427 −$3 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $6 $0 -7%
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $4 −$1 -13%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 16 $219 −$4 -2%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $154 $0 -0%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open? Mar 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will January be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Mar 27 $20 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 23 $16 $0 -1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Mar 20 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 20 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1,427 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,374 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $34 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,123 2h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $21 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $302 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,427 2h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $6 68d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $6 68d
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 69d
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 69d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $210 69d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $210 69d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $215 70d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $219 70d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $154 90d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open? SELL No 99¢ $15 90d
Will January be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 90d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $101 90d
Will January be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 90d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 90d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY No 99¢ $15 90d
Will January be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 90d
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 94d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 99¢ $190 97d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $121 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records