Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6E 0x6e32…ab65 sports 732 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30,143 (+10%) realized +$30,000 · open +$143
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%369W / 355L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$415per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Fees−$3,612est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$4,301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 53d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$2,071
other 15% +$2,235
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -65.6% -68.9% 22% 22% -86.8%
≤30d 355 -9.8% -18.4% 48% 48% -15.3%
≤90d 724 +4.6% -5.4% 51% 51% -9.5%
all 724 +4.6% -5.4% 51% 51% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 51% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 48% -18.2%
15% -22.7% 44% -26.1%
20% -30.3% 37% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$588) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$368 vs −$382 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$4,301
Realized+$30,000
Unrealized+$143
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses369 / 355
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$3,612
Open positions7
Markets (closed)724 / 732
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$415
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 724 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Karmine Corp 59¢ 60¢ $1,112 $1,130 +$18 (+2%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 76¢ 76¢ $1,127 $1,129 +$2 (+0%)
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Under 49¢ 48¢ $530 $514 −$16 (-3%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Karmine Corp 66¢ 68¢ $421 $437 +$16 (+4%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 66¢ 68¢ $386 $401 +$15 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $296 $398 +$102 (+35%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 66¢ 67¢ $285 $292 +$6 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? Jun 29 $73 +$73 +100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 29 $421 −$416 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $543 −$536 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $777 −$771 -99%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $320 −$320 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $372 −$368 -99%
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Jun 28 $661 −$661 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $313 −$306 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $294 −$288 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 28 $324 −$320 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $21 +$4 +20%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $557 +$117 +21%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $348 −$342 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Jun 27 $5 +$4 +79%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $689 −$689 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $679 +$350 +52%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $326 +$509 +156%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $301 −$301 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $231 −$231 -100%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 21 $516 −$516 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $235 −$235 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 21 $355 −$355 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $712 −$712 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 21 $664 −$664 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 21 $554 −$554 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $339 −$339 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $526 −$526 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $139 −$139 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $249 −$249 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $309 −$309 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $258 −$258 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $299 −$299 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $464 −$464 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $459 −$459 -100%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 21 $591 −$591 -100%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 21 $475 −$475 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $415 −$415 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $231 −$231 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 21 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $330 −$330 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $611 −$611 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $130 +$70 +54%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $331 +$528 +160%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $345 +$185 +54%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 18 $452 +$254 +56%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $247 +$493 +200%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $567 +$727 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play- BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $338 1m
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 47¢ $9 13m
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 59¢ $376 47m
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 59¢ $19 48m
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 59¢ $225 48m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play- BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $337 1h
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 49¢ $511 1h
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 49¢ $1 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play- BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $24 2h
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 48¢ $9 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play- BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $38 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 66¢ $154 3h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play- BUY Karmine Corp 76¢ $109 3h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 58¢ $374 3h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 65¢ $134 3h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 66¢ $390 3h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 66¢ $425 3h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 58¢ $125 3h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play- BUY Karmine Corp 75¢ $288 3h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 18¢ $56 19h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $543 20h
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? BUY Over 50¢ $53 21h
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? BUY Over 50¢ $20 21h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 14¢ $52 22h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 32¢ $32 23h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 32¢ $8 23h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $50 25h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $126 26h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 14¢ $16 26h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 14¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,300.53 · official $4,300.53 (match) · 3500 history records