Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6e31…0e6e sports 1647 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,624 (+4%) realized +$3,390 · open +$234
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate75%1236W / 404L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day54.2pace
Fees−$624est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$777
14 days+$1,733
30 days+$2,652
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$2,097
finance 4% +$664
other 4% +$194
tech 1% +$113
weather 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 201 +2.2% -7.5% 76% 76% -7.3%
≤30d 1460 +1.0% -8.6% 74% 72% -6.7%
≤90d 1640 +2.4% -7.4% 75% 73% -6.5%
all 1640 +2.4% -7.4% 75% 73% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 73% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 70% -15.5%
15% -24.3% 42% -23.7%
20% -31.8% 2% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$49 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1,389
Realized+$3,390
Unrealized+$234
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1236 / 404
Est. fees paid−$624
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1640 / 1647
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day54.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1640 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Refuser 70¢ 100¢ $165 $237 +$72 (+43%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Dplus KIA Challengers 71¢ 100¢ $165 $232 +$67 (+41%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Team Refuser 73¢ 100¢ $165 $226 +$61 (+37%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 71¢ 86¢ $165 $201 +$36 (+22%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Down 74¢ 77¢ $165 $172 +$7 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 71¢ 69¢ $165 $161 −$4 (-2%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Up 71¢ 69¢ $165 $160 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $166 +$57 +34%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $166 +$45 +27%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $167 +$56 +33%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $167 +$69 +41%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $166 +$54 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $166 +$54 +32%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $180 +$24 +14%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $143 +$22 +16%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $166 −$166 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $166 +$56 +34%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $166 +$66 +40%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 16 $166 +$63 +38%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $166 +$48 +29%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $166 −$166 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $166 +$67 +40%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $166 −$166 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 16 $166 −$166 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $166 −$166 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $166 −$166 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $166 +$51 +31%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $166 +$63 +38%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $166 +$63 +38%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $166 +$48 +29%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $166 +$69 +42%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $166 +$66 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $166 +$66 +40%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $166 +$69 +42%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $166 +$63 +38%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $166 +$45 +27%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $166 +$45 +27%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $166 +$66 +40%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $166 −$166 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $166 +$45 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $166 +$45 +27%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $166 +$63 +38%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $166 +$57 +34%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $166 +$66 +40%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $166 −$166 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $166 −$166 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $166 −$166 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $166 +$66 +40%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $166 +$69 +42%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $166 +$63 +38%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $166 +$69 +42%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $166 +$69 +42%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $166 +$45 +27%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $166 +$60 +36%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $166 +$50 +30%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $166 +$63 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 71¢ $166 35m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 71¢ $167 39m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 73¢ $166 2h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 70¢ $166 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 74¢ $167 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 71¢ $166 5h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 71¢ $166 6h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 78¢ $166 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 75¢ $166 11h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 74¢ $166 14h
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 80¢ $32 14h
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 90¢ $148 15h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 86¢ $143 15h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 74¢ $162 15h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 70¢ $167 16h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 71¢ $166 18h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 75¢ $166 18h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 71¢ $166 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 78¢ $166 19h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 77¢ $166 19h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 72¢ $166 19h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 74¢ $166 20h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 82¢ $5 21h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 73¢ $166 27h
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) BUY illwill 72¢ $166 30h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $166 37h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY SPARTA 77¢ $166 37h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 74¢ $166 38h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 71¢ $166 40h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 70¢ $166 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,389.22 · official $1,383.70 (match) · 3500 history records