Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6E 0x6e30…52e3 other 77 markets active 1d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,471 (-28%) realized −$3,186 · open −$285
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%19W / 50L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$661now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$694
7 days−$722
14 days−$722
30 days−$2,340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$24
sports 30% −$1,488
world 28% −$1,762
politics 5% −$356
crypto 1% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -14.7% -22.9% 22% 22% -63.1%
≤30d 15 -34.1% -40.4% 20% 20% -73.8%
≤90d 69 -34.5% -40.7% 28% 28% -38.1%
all 69 -34.5% -40.7% 28% 28% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.7% 28% -38.1%
10% -46.4% 23% -44.0%
15% -51.6% 17% -49.4%
20% -56.3% 14% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$114 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$661
Realized−$3,186
Unrealized−$285
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses19 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions8
Markets (closed)69 / 77
History coverage66d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $467 $378 −$89 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $291 $172 −$120 (-41%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $61 $33 −$28 (-46%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $20 −$30 (-59%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $22 $14 −$8 (-38%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $23 −$1 -6%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $77 −$8 -11%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 +$6 +11%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $102 +$24 +24%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $724 −$713 -99%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$13 -25%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$2 -3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $47 −$8 -16%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $206 +$249 +121%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $360 −$353 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $178 −$175 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $169 −$167 -99%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $993 −$974 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 22 $200 −$198 -99%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 18 $482 −$455 -94%
Dota 2: Team NS vs Stray Team - Game 2 Winner May 18 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $73 −$70 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $93 −$90 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 17 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $146 −$48 -33%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 17 $289 −$50 -17%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $76 −$75 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $191 +$157 +82%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $102 −$29 -28%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $41 +$58 +142%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $323 +$132 +41%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $56 +$4 +7%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $391 +$445 +114%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $490 +$316 +64%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $222 −$220 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $55 −$25 -46%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $49 −$48 -96%
Will Trump say "Beautiful Bill" at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $49 −$47 -97%
Will Trump say "Kickback" at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $59 −$58 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $534 +$151 +28%
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April? Apr 29 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 29 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $70 −$14 -21%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $561 +$261 +46%
James Comey arrested by April 30? Apr 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? Apr 29 $304 +$41 +13%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference? Apr 29 $29 +$72 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $21 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $69 27h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $57 27h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $126 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $724 43h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $295 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $37 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $39 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $91 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $34 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $96 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $47 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $661.46 · official $661.46 (match) · 171 history records