Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e2f…9123 sports 535 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,620 (-6%) realized −$5,577 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%279W / 251L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$1,202est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$331
7 days+$897
14 days−$1,927
30 days−$1,838
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$7,172
other 5% −$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +18.4% +7.1% 59% 59% -0.3%
≤30d 202 +2.5% -7.2% 56% 54% -14.6%
≤90d 530 -1.8% -11.1% 53% 51% -17.0%
all 530 -1.8% -11.1% 53% 51% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 51% -17.0%
10% -19.6% 47% -24.9%
15% -27.4% 41% -32.2%
20% -34.5% 32% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$163 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$5,577
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses279 / 251
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,202
Open positions5
Markets (closed)530 / 535
History coverage75d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 530 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF San Gregorio: Anastasia Abbagnato vs Ruien Zhang Anastasia Abbagnato 75¢ 74¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Zizou Bergs 25¢ 20¢ $119 $93 −$26 (-22%)
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz Dune Vaissaud 55¢ 69¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+25%)
ITF Lourinha: Goncalo Marques vs Thijs Boogaard Goncalo Marques 25¢ 8¢ $8 $3 −$6 (-68%)
ITF San Gregorio: Galatea Ferro vs Sofia Rocchetti Galatea Ferro 33¢ 1¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 235 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Schmidt (-1.5) vs Leykina (+1.5) Jun 17 $18 +$10 +52%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $47 +$32 +68%
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Jun 17 $103 +$35 +34%
Set 1 Winner: Brunclik vs Broska Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han Jun 17 $202 +$72 +36%
Set Handicap: Voracek (-1.5) vs Schnyder (+1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Jun 17 $203 +$148 +73%
ITF Irvine: Maria Aytoyan vs Caroline Driscoll Jun 16 $28 +$18 +65%
Set 1 Winner: Nefve vs Wolf Jun 16 $2 +$5 +291%
Marozsan vs. Kecmanovic: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 +119%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $45 +$175 +388%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $202 +$69 +34%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $169 −$165 -98%
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn Jun 16 $11 +$4 +34%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Paula Cembranos Jun 16 $204 +$337 +165%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
ITF Milano: Luca Parenti vs Lorenzo Berto Jun 16 $22 −$22 -99%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $410 −$114 -28%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $202 +$136 +67%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $235 −$229 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $204 +$337 +165%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $201 +$280 +140%
Set Handicap: Sonmez (-1.5) vs Klugman (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs Minaur Jun 14 $7 +$3 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $315 −$76 -24%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Antonia Rivera Jun 14 $5 +$7 +124%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +114%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $525 +$194 +37%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $78 −$37 -48%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $152 +$147 +97%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +180%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $144 −$7 -5%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$2 +250%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $72 +$34 +48%
Wendelken vs. Walton: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +67%
Harry Wendelken vs. Adam Walton: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$4 +146%
Sanchis vs. Boyer: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +73%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $203 −$198 -98%
Mannarino vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $12 +$5 +42%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $96 +$44 +46%
Set Handicap: Kovacevic (-1.5) vs Mmoh (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $4 +$1 +42%
Set 1 Winner: Udvardy vs Volynets Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Landaluce vs Huesler Jun 13 $3 +$4 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF San Gregorio: Anastasia Abbagnato vs Ruien Zhang BUY Anastasia Abbagnato 75¢ $98 7m
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 25¢ $121 44m
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo SELL Xi Luo 100¢ $80 1h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder SELL Eva Marie Voracek 100¢ $138 1h
ITF Lourinha: Goncalo Marques vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Goncalo Marques 25¢ $8 1h
Set 1 Winner: Brunclik vs Broska BUY Brunclik 65¢ $3 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Galatea Ferro vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Galatea Ferro 33¢ $13 1h
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz BUY Dune Vaissaud 55¢ $9 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han SELL Daria Khomutsianskaya 100¢ $274 2h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 74¢ $103 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 62¢ $34 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 51¢ $13 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han BUY Daria Khomutsianskaya 73¢ $202 2h
Set Handicap: Voracek (-1.5) vs Schnyder (+1.5) BUY Voracek 75¢ $2 3h
Set Handicap: Schmidt (-1.5) vs Leykina (+1.5) BUY Leykina 65¢ $18 3h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng SELL Tiana Tian Deng 100¢ $351 4h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ $203 6h
ITF Irvine: Maria Aytoyan vs Caroline Driscoll BUY Maria Aytoyan 60¢ $28 14h
Set 1 Winner: Nefve vs Wolf BUY Wolf 25¢ $2 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 19¢ $1 20h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 19¢ $70 20h
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Caty McNally 74¢ $202 20h
Marozsan vs. Kecmanovic: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 45¢ $0 20h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 29¢ $98 20h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 20¢ $45 21h
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy BUY Margaux Rouvroy 73¢ $4 22h
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 54¢ $203 24h
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Paula Cembranos BUY Nicole Gadient 37¢ $204 24h
Set 1 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn BUY Khachanov 74¢ $11 24h
ITF Milano: Luca Parenti vs Lorenzo Berto BUY Luca Parenti 73¢ $22 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.28 · official $202.28 (match) · 1069 history records