Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6e2d…990c sports 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$308 (+11%) realized +$152 · open +$156
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%94W / 65L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$98
14 days+$184
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$406
other 22% −$63
world 0% +$10
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +5.3% -4.7% 50% 49% -4.1%
≤30d 159 +16.4% +5.3% 59% 57% -0.4%
≤90d 159 +16.4% +5.3% 59% 57% -0.4%
all 159 +16.4% +5.3% 59% 57% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 57% -0.4%
10% -4.7% 45% -9.9%
15% -13.9% 37% -18.6%
20% -22.4% 29% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$684
Realized+$152
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses94 / 65
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)159 / 168
History coverage20d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 100¢ $500 $641 +$141 (+28%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 53¢ 100¢ $11 $20 +$10 (+89%)
Honor of Kings: Rogue Warriors vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 3 Kuaishou Gaming 80¢ 80¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 99¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+130%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$7 +67%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $121 +$58 +48%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 −$48 -95%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$52 -52%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $2 +$1 +47%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$5 -48%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $112 −$73 -66%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $1 +$11 +1011%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 +$102 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 +$23 +311%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$19 -90%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -93%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $67 +$82 +122%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $21 +$49 +238%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $53 +$47 +90%
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs WST (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 G Jun 21 $29 +$4 +13%
Honor of Kings: JD Gaming vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League Jun 21 $16 +$4 +23%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag Jun 21 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 +$3 +42%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +11%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $9 +$11 +134%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$7 +50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +14%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $8 +$2 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +73%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 +$8 +24%
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs Douyu Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Jun 20 $4 +$1 +18%
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs Talent Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage Jun 20 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -94%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $11 −$2 -18%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 +$6 +510%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $7 +$2 +33%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$3 -51%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$9 -58%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $9 +$1 +12%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $7 +$9 +129%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 +$7 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Iraq $2 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $49 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $503 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $10 4h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 67¢ $121 4h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $41 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes $5 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $38 7h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will A BUY 39¢ $49 9h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $2 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $61 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 59¢ $10 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 22h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $11 22h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $204 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 23h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt $1 24h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt $0 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 26h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) SELL Uruguay $0 26h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 56¢ $23 26h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 24¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $683.82 · official $683.82 (match) · 405 history records