Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6E 0x6e2c…bd51 sports 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,150 (+4%) realized +$1,941 · open +$2,209
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%101W / 73L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$586per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$260est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$26,870now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 454d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 35% +$4,229
crypto 26% −$8,735
other 20% +$562
sports 19% +$2,018
culture 0% +$92
economics 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -15.9% -23.9% 45% 45% -48.7%
≤30d 72 +16.1% +5.0% 62% 60% -28.0%
≤90d 91 +13.9% +3.0% 64% 62% -17.2%
all 174 +8.6% -1.8% 58% 57% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 57% -14.4%
10% -11.2% 53% -22.6%
15% -19.7% 48% -30.1%
20% -27.6% 39% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$221 vs −$362 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$26,870
Realized+$1,941
Unrealized+$2,209
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses101 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$260
Open positions24
Markets (closed)174 / 199
History coverage454d
Avg bet$586
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 64¢ 99¢ $4,477 $6,925 +$2,448 (+55%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 72¢ 64¢ $2,650 $2,348 −$302 (-11%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 63¢ 56¢ $2,329 $2,079 −$250 (-11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 74¢ 99¢ $1,521 $2,046 +$525 (+35%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 8¢ 17¢ $928 $1,980 +$1,052 (+113%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? No 48¢ 48¢ $1,456 $1,468 +$11 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? No 67¢ 61¢ $1,424 $1,299 −$125 (-9%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $1,233 $1,154 −$78 (-6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 62¢ 99¢ $597 $954 +$357 (+60%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 38¢ 12¢ $2,802 $877 −$1,925 (-69%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 82¢ 99¢ $709 $860 +$151 (+21%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? No 80¢ 80¢ $836 $845 +$9 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 49¢ 99¢ $353 $712 +$359 (+102%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 76¢ $527 $621 +$94 (+18%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 53¢ 91¢ $310 $537 +$227 (+73%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 54¢ 91¢ $308 $519 +$211 (+69%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 66¢ 96¢ $259 $377 +$118 (+46%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 66¢ $314 $322 +$7 (+2%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 72¢ $192 $218 +$26 (+13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $158 $193 +$35 (+22%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 71¢ 97¢ $138 $187 +$49 (+35%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $156 $170 +$14 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $164 $119 −$44 (-27%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 64¢ 89¢ $34 $47 +$13 (+39%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $142 $9 −$132 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $61 +$43 +70%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $878 −$825 -94%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2,117 −$262 -12%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,128 −$2,100 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $92 +$165 +180%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,517 −$1,500 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $61 +$139 +226%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $182 +$123 +67%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,140 +$660 +58%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $376 −$372 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $641 −$633 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $122 +$64 +53%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $388 +$126 +32%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $165 −$161 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $600 −$594 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $194 −$192 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $179 −$177 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $70 −$70 -99%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 14 $3,628 +$744 +20%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $61 +$59 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $14 −$13 -97%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 11 $276 +$138 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $609 −$609 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 11 $843 −$843 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $3,194 −$1,857 -58%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $1,242 −$700 -56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 11 $3,734 −$3,734 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 11 $7,851 −$7,851 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $376 +$224 +60%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $435 +$165 +38%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 11 $323 +$184 +57%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $885 +$315 +36%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $226 +$134 +60%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $372 +$228 +61%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $1,318 +$782 +59%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $350 +$1,177 +336%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 11 $436 +$164 +38%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 11 $459 +$141 +31%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 11 $800 +$400 +50%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 09 $180 +$120 +67%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 09 $97 +$29 +30%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 09 $95 +$85 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 56¢ $65 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 52¢ $48 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $56 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 47¢ $144 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 46¢ $17 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 46¢ $141 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 60¢ $249 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 44¢ $77 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 78¢ $118 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 27¢ $100 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 49¢ $246 10h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 60¢ $366 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 20¢ $24 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 64¢ $44 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2,125 10h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 49¢ $150 10h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 49¢ $400 10h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 80¢ $725 11h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 50¢ $31 11h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 48¢ $234 11h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 59¢ $60 11h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 57¢ $367 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 53¢ $61 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $61 20h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $375 26h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 26h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $122 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $1,780 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1,908 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 27¢ $17 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,870.05 · official $26,870.42 (match) · 939 history records