Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6E 0x6e2c…b7f8 crypto 201 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (174 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$20,587 (-2%) realized +$11,136 · open −$31,723
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate87%162W / 24L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$5,542per market
Trades / day173.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$186,661now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% +$48,605
crypto 45% +$35,300
finance 4% −$1,348
other 2% +$1,878
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (174 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -22.2% -29.6% 72% 4% +7.0%
≤30d 186 +4.3% -5.6% 87% 6% +3.6%
≤90d 186 +4.3% -5.6% 87% 6% +3.6%
all 186 +4.3% -5.6% 87% 6% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover173.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 6% +3.6%
10% -14.6% 5% -6.3%
15% ← realistic here -22.9% 4% -15.4%
20% -30.4% 3% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$774) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$726 vs −$81 · ×9.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×66.37 per $1 lost it wins $66.37
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$186,661
Realized+$11,136
Unrealized−$31,723
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses162 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions33
Markets (closed)186 / 201
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$5,542
Trades / day173.6
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 95¢ $35,000 $66,395 +$31,395 (+90%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $47,894 $47,948 +$54 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $12,445 $12,644 +$199 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $9,601 $9,703 +$101 (+1%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $8,535 $8,538 +$3 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 26¢ 55¢ $3,952 $8,377 +$4,425 (+112%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 94¢ 93¢ $6,715 $6,669 −$46 (-1%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 40¢ $11,368 $6,426 −$4,942 (-43%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $5,363 $5,368 +$5 (+0%)
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No 83¢ 80¢ $3,928 $3,796 −$132 (-3%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 93¢ 94¢ $3,655 $3,665 +$10 (+0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 5¢ $35,000 $3,605 −$31,395 (-90%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 54¢ 58¢ $1,173 $1,258 +$84 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $481 $491 +$10 (+2%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $353 $354 +$1 (+0%)
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $302 $302 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $261 $261 −$0 (-0%)
Will CryptoPunks floor price dip to 10 ETH before 2027? No 78¢ 55¢ $332 $234 −$98 (-29%)
Will Solana reach $120 June 15-21? No 100¢ 99¢ $219 $217 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $159 $159 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $101 $105 +$4 (+4%)
Will Solana dip to $0 June 15-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.70 June 15-21? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 5? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 4-10? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 4-10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 28? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 April 27-May 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will XRP reach $1.80 April 13-19? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Liverpool finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 20? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solana reach $110 April 13-19? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 4-10? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier Jun 17 $66 −$75 -113%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 June 15-21? Jun 16 $322 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 16? Jun 16 $306 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $175 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in June? Jun 16 $5,366 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 15? Jun 15 $244 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 15? Jun 15 $261 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10,683 +$20 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $3,591 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $8,314 +$8 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Jun 15 $1,110 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $305,000 +$80,000 +26%
Will Solana reach $95 on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,211 −$11 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 June 8-14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $20 June 8-14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $10 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10,000 +$34 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 June 8-14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 June 8-14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 June 8-14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $5,579 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 15? Jun 15 $169 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $1,290 +$6 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $149 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $939 +$2,462 +262%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 June 8-14? Jun 13 $330 +$2 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 June 8-14? Jun 13 $308 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? Jun 13 $5,570 +$5 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14? Jun 13 $4,179 +$9 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 24m
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $28 24m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $18 34m
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $4 40m
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $35 42m
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $4 51m
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $4 54m
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $4 56m
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $4 58m
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $4 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $4,673 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10,051 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $46 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $17 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $4 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? SELL No 97¢ $20 1h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $486 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 99¢ $237 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 99¢ $194 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 99¢ $414 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 99¢ $282 2h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 99¢ $318 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 99¢ $179 2h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $89 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186,661.28 · official $186,660.83 (match) · 3500 history records