Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e2b…aad8 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-8%) realized −$77 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$31
sports 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -18.5% -26.3% 44% 44% -12.8%
≤30d 9 -18.5% -26.3% 44% 44% -12.8%
≤90d 9 -18.5% -26.3% 44% 44% -12.8%
all 9 -18.5% -26.3% 44% 44% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 44% -12.8%
10% -33.4% 33% -21.2%
15% -39.8% 22% -28.8%
20% -45.7% 11% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$36 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage5d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $4 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $157 −$6 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $161 +$63 +39%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$52 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $97 +$15 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $78 +$19 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $165 −$22 -13%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 57m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $151 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $157 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $161 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $112 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $97 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $78 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $65 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 44¢ $65 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 45h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.33 · official $100.34 (match) · 23 history records