Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:35:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e2b…00a5 crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (167 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+4%) realized +$110 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate61%23W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day167.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$80
other 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (167 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -11.1% -19.6% 61% 37% -12.4%
≤30d 38 -11.1% -19.6% 61% 37% -12.4%
≤90d 38 -11.1% -19.6% 61% 37% -12.4%
all 38 -11.1% -19.6% 61% 37% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover167.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 37% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 24% -20.8%
15% -34.3% 13% -28.4%
20% -40.7% 8% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$28 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$110
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses23 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage1d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day167.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $77 −$14 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$31 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $128 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$94 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$21 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $259 +$31 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $154 +$18 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $56 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $128 +$58 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $129 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $102 −$34 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $77 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $76 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$45 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $38 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $31 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $14 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $8 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $31 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $68 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $63 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $55 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.58 · official $22.58 · 170 history records