Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6E 0x6e2a…967b weather 1578 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL −$210 (-5%) realized −$167 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%277W / 781L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$344
14 days+$695
30 days+$1,038
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$764
crypto 1% −$44
other 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +163.3% +138.2% 43% 43% +93.8%
≤30d 688 +57.6% +42.6% 32% 32% +31.3%
≤90d 1058 +29.6% +17.2% 26% 26% +8.8%
all 1058 +29.6% +17.2% 26% 26% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.2% 26% +8.8%
10% ← realistic here +6.0% 26% -1.6%
15% -4.2% 25% -11.1%
20% -13.6% 25% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$3 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$167
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses277 / 781
Open positions49
Markets (closed)1058 / 1578
History coverage73d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 1058 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Yes 17¢ 40¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+132%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Yes 13¢ 23¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+79%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 19? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 451 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +496%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$5 +193%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$17 +1263%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +269%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$17 +633%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 +$13 +636%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$14 +1237%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$9 +349%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$22 +220%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$35 +1346%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$19 +2283%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1398%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +464%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$9 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +222%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$11 +433%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $7 +$17 +238%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +337%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +256%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 16? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$67 +2280%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$10 +960%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 51m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.18 · official $104.81 (match) · 2119 history records