Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e29…eba9 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-5%) realized −$25 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$275
7 days+$5
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$4
world 10% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +166.3% +141.0% 75% 75% -8.6%
≤30d 7 +52.2% +37.7% 43% 43% -15.2%
≤90d 8 +33.2% +20.5% 38% 38% -18.8%
all 8 +33.2% +20.5% 38% 38% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.5% 38% -18.8%
10% +8.9% 38% -26.6%
15% -1.6% 38% -33.7%
20% -11.2% 25% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$72 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage94d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $45 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $32 +$16 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $21 +$10 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $362 −$301 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $43 +$279 +649%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Apr 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.78 · official $44.78 (match) · 16 history records