Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e29…64bf world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$3
politics 17% −$1
other 16% $0
tech 7% +$1
crypto 7% $0
sports 4% −$1
culture 3% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +91.4% +73.2% 25% 12% -8.0%
≤30d 11 +66.5% +50.7% 27% 9% -8.5%
≤90d 11 +66.5% +50.7% 27% 9% -8.5%
all 40 +17.1% +5.9% 30% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 2% -9.3%
10% -4.2% 2% -17.9%
15% -13.5% 2% -25.9%
20% -21.9% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage325d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $73 +$4 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Aug 10 $59 $0 +1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Peter Casey win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Aug 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran before September? Aug 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $17 −$1 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Jul 31 $2 −$1 -48%
Will anyone say "Copilot" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call? Jul 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 29 $7 $0 +2%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in July? Jul 29 $66 $0 -0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 28 $67 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $26 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $26 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $11 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $11 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $44 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $44 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $40 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $0 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $38 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $38 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.73 · official $39.07 (match) · 127 history records