Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e26…b0c1 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$118 (-15%) realized −$37 · open −$81
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit2%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$74
14 days−$77
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$161
crypto 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +33.1% +20.4% 22% 22% -23.7%
≤30d 34 +25.3% +13.3% 21% 21% -24.2%
≤90d 34 +25.3% +13.3% 21% 21% -24.2%
all 34 +25.3% +13.3% 21% 21% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.3% 21% -24.2%
10% +2.5% 21% -31.5%
15% -7.4% 21% -38.1%
20% -16.5% 21% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +77% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$8 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 27
Open positions13
Markets (closed)34 / 47
History coverage18d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit2%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $199 $132 −$66 (-33%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+29%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $9 −$6 (-41%)
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists Yes 15¢ 12¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-20%)
Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots Yes 43¢ 22¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Yes 24¢ 20¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-19%)
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Yes 18¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Leroy Sané: 1+ assists Yes 20¢ 11¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots on target Yes 21¢ 12¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists Yes 23¢ 12¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Ismael Saibari: 1+ assists Yes 12¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assists Jun 29 $233 −$19 -8%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots Jun 29 $18 −$18 -98%
Rayan: 2+ shots on target Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Amine Gouiri: 3+ shots Jun 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Martin Baturina: 2+ shots Jun 27 $11 −$11 -98%
Ante Budimir: 3+ shots Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots Jun 27 $11 −$11 -98%
Marco Pašalić: 3+ shots Jun 27 $13 −$13 -98%
Petar Musa: 2+ shots Jun 27 $47 −$46 -98%
Petar Musa: 3+ shots Jun 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots Jun 27 $21 +$17 +81%
Pape Guèye: 1+ goals Jun 26 $1 +$9 +874%
Pedro Porro: 2+ shots Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Ahmed Qasem: 1+ assists Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ assists Jun 26 $4 +$21 +521%
Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Benjamin Nygren: 2+ shots Jun 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Franck Kessié: 1+ goals Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals Jun 24 $4 +$24 +596%
Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals Jun 24 $3 +$22 +712%
Frantzdy Pierrot: 1+ goals Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Ermin Mahmić: 3+ shots Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Martin Baturina: 1+ assists Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Mario Pašalić: 1+ goals Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ goals Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Pedro Neto: 2+ shots Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots Jun 23 $5 +$28 +550%
Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots Jun 23 $10 +$14 +134%
Álvaro Fidalgo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ismael Saibari: 1+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $3 57m
Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots on target BUY Yes 21¢ $5 57m
Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assists SELL Yes 50¢ $213 1h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assists BUY Yes 53¢ $203 1h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assists BUY Yes 54¢ $30 1h
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots BUY Yes 36¢ $9 6h
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 15¢ $4 6h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 24¢ $6 7h
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $5 7h
Leroy Sané: 1+ assists BUY Yes 20¢ $5 7h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $4 7h
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 15¢ $4 7h
Rayan: 2+ shots on target BUY Yes 21¢ $5 8h
Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8h
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots BUY Yes 38¢ $9 8h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists BUY Yes $2 24h
Amine Gouiri: 3+ shots BUY Yes 33¢ $4 2d
Martin Baturina: 2+ shots BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Martin Baturina: 2+ shots BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2d
Ante Budimir: 3+ shots BUY Yes 20¢ $7 2d
Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots BUY Yes 20¢ $11 2d
Marco Pašalić: 3+ shots BUY Yes 22¢ $13 2d
Petar Musa: 2+ shots BUY Yes 44¢ $47 2d
Petar Musa: 3+ shots BUY Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots BUY Yes 54¢ $3 3d
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots BUY Yes 55¢ $18 3d
Pedro Porro: 2+ shots BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.84 · official $237.25 (match) · 83 history records