Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e25…db26 sports 1210 markets active 3h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,784 (-4%) realized −$3,784 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%690W / 520L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$515est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$492
7 days−$554
14 days−$1,290
30 days−$7,241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$3,700
crypto 34% −$1,588
other 0% +$100
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 215 +1.3% -8.3% 60% 59% -11.4%
≤30d 470 -14.5% -22.6% 53% 52% -24.3%
≤90d 727 -4.0% -13.2% 59% 58% -13.0%
all 1210 -5.0% -14.1% 57% 55% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 55% -14.3%
10% -22.3% 52% -22.5%
15% -29.8% 47% -30.0%
20% -36.7% 32% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$68 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,784
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses690 / 520
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$515
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1210 / 1210
History coverage155d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1210 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$16 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$6 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $56 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $56 +$52 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $76 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $74 +$57 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $207 −$199 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $87 −$85 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$57 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $56 +$38 +68%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $59 +$21 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$24 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$24 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $58 +$50 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $117 −$117 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $214 −$170 -79%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $62 +$22 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$31 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$27 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$22 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $77 +$64 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $82 +$53 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $343 −$343 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $414 −$414 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $252 −$252 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $687 −$687 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$37 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $72 +$60 +84%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $79 +$52 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $98 +$45 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $89 +$59 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $74 +$65 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$73 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$40 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $51 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $56 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $56 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $76 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $74 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $74 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $207 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $87 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $249 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $202 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $100 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $58 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $93 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $56 45h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 94¢ $80 45h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 68¢ $59 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $55 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $57 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $107 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $58 46h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 93¢ $83 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $88 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $57 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $81 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2644 history records