Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e1e…08c5 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% $0
world 29% $0
politics 12% −$4
crypto 7% $0
economics 6% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -1.6% -11.0% 43% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -1.6% -11.0% 43% 0% -9.6%
all 20 +7.7% -2.6% 40% 5% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 5% -10.6%
10% -11.9% 5% -19.1%
15% -20.4% 5% -26.9%
20% -28.2% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage396d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $4 $0 -12%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? May 29 $25 −$4 -18%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bachelet win the Chilean presidential election? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $3 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 23 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $41 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $25 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $13 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $38 15h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $37 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $37 19d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $37 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $4 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $8 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $8 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 26d
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? SELL No 100¢ $5 361d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 363d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $2 368d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $21 390d
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? SELL No 81¢ $20 390d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.40 · official $41.40 (match) · 84 history records