Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:27:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e19…862e other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$2
politics 21% −$6
world 17% $0
crypto 12% $0
sports 11% +$15
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 4 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 0% -9.2%
all 35 -5.6% -14.6% 37% 3% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 3% -8.3%
10% -22.7% 3% -17.1%
15% -30.2% 3% -25.1%
20% -37.1% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage473d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 91¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 24 $2 $0 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 24 $20 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves May 26 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 09 $20 $0 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Sweden qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? May 08 $21 $0 -1%
Will Federico Valverde win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? May 06 $23 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 05 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 03 $23 −$2 -8%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 31 $2 $0 -7%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $1 $0 -20%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 29 $5 −$4 -83%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $29 $0 +1%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum above $1,900 on March 21? Mar 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Brundage vs. Marquez Mar 21 $15 +$15 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $42 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $42 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $26 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $12 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $9 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $28 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $27 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $27 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 25d
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL No 99¢ $20 358d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? BUY No 97¢ $2 373d
Thunder vs. Timberwolves BUY T-Wolves 97¢ $1 388d
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $20 402d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? SELL No 98¢ $21 402d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 98¢ $20 403d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $20 403d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $20 403d
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? SELL No 96¢ $20 403d
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? BUY No 96¢ $20 403d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec SELL No 94¢ $20 403d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec BUY No 96¢ $20 404d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $21 404d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $21 404d
Will Sweden qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 404d
Will Sweden qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? BUY Yes 99¢ $21 404d
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? SELL No 98¢ $20 404d
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? BUY No 98¢ $21 405d
Will Federico Valverde win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $21 405d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.31 · official $37.31 (match) · 87 history records