Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:51:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e18…b965 weather 28 markets active 5d ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate82%23W / 5L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$116
14 days−$116
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 50% $0
other 31% +$4
crypto 19% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -55.5% -59.8% 44% 0% -54.2%
≤30d 14 -25.1% -32.2% 64% 7% -27.9%
≤90d 28 +4.6% -5.3% 82% 7% -8.6%
all 28 +4.6% -5.3% 82% 7% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 7% -8.6%
10% -14.4% 7% -17.3%
15% -22.7% 7% -25.3%
20% -30.2% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$23 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses23 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage48d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 14? Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 8? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on May 24? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on May 24? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 24 $30 +$44 +148%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 21 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8PM ET May 20 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 19 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on May May 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on May 14? May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 18 $16 +$76 +465%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 10? May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will White House post 200+ posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on May May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on May May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 5? May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C or below on May 6? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 30 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 30 $24 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $55 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $42 10d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $38 25d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $6 25d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 27d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 27d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $30 27d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 27d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $40 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 31d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on May BUY No 99¢ $7 35d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 35d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 36d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 36d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 36d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $0 36d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $3 36d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $3 36d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $33 36d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 36d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $29 36d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $14 39d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May BUY No 100¢ $18 42d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on May BUY No 100¢ $8 43d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C or below on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $23 43d
Will White House post 200+ posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records