Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e15…6ffc crypto 455 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$123 (-1%) realized −$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%440W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$34
14 days−$67
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$12
finance 8% −$11
other 7% −$108
tech 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -0.6% -10.1% 98% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 203 -1.5% -10.9% 97% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 455 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 0% -10.8%
all 455 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -10.8%
10% -19.1% 0% -19.4%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$21 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses440 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)455 / 455
History coverage78d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 455 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 29? Jun 29 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $49 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET Jun 28 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 27? Jun 27 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 27? Jun 27 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27? Jun 27 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 92¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 93¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $0 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 44h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 98¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $14 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.85 · official $45.00 (match) · 2149 history records