Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6e13…8ad0 weather 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$104 (+2%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate76%26W / 8L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% −$3
weather 18% +$1
crypto 7% $0
sports 2% +$105
other 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.5%
all 34 +2.8% -7.0% 76% 3% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 3% -7.9%
10% -15.9% 3% -16.7%
15% -24.0% 3% -24.8%
20% -31.4% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×10.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×34.04 per $1 lost it wins $34.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses26 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage181d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $91 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or higher on April 2? Apr 02 $132 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $584 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 22? Mar 22 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 19? Mar 19 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on March 18? Mar 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C or below on March 18? Mar 18 $125 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $447 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on March 16? Mar 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $299 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $535 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Mar 07 $114 +$105 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 67°F or below on March 5? Mar 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on March 4? Mar 04 $71 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 02 $168 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on March 1? Mar 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $334 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 28? Feb 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 2°C or below on February 23? Feb 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on February 4? Feb 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on February 9 Feb 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Durant be a 2026 NBA All-Star? Feb 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on February 4? Feb 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Feb 20 $195 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of December 29 above $285? Jan 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will Tim Vieira qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal pres Jan 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C or below on January 14? Jan 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Jan 23 $65 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $91 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or higher on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $132 88d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $584 88d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $584 89d
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $102 99d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $172 102d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $447 103d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 103d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C or below on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $125 104d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $447 104d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $59 105d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $693 105d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $694 106d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $683 108d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $683 109d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $66 110d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $629 110d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $299 110d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $629 111d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $299 112d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $535 112d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $535 114d
Knicks vs. Nuggets BUY Knicks 52¢ $114 115d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 67°F or below on March 5? BUY No 100¢ $39 117d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $71 118d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $334 120d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $334 121d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $70 121d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 28? BUY No 100¢ $25 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $168 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.89 · official $90.89 (match) · 85 history records