Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6E 0x6e10…8030 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$6
politics 15% −$4
sports 6% −$27
world 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 +2.3% -7.5% 13% 9% -9.7%
all 105 +2.3% -7.5% 13% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 9% -9.7%
10% -16.3% 9% -18.3%
15% -24.4% 9% -26.2%
20% -31.8% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage91d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $382 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $217 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $67 $0 +0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 31 $381 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $390 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $173 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $175 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $465 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 14 $177 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $173 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $185 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $182 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $173 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $734 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $352 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $330 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $381 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $303 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $190 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $186 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $189 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $185 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $345 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $361 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $343 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $29 4h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $120 12h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $37 4d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $37 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 6d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 13d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 14d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $27 16d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $27 16d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 17d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 17d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 18d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 21d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $22 24d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 24d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $30 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $67 24d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $30 24d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 26d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $173 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.96 · official $119.96 (match) · 326 history records