Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e0d…829c other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-4%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$59
14 days−$73
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$71
sports 24% +$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -51.1% -55.8% 30% 30% -48.1%
≤30d 31 -4.0% -13.2% 35% 29% -31.4%
≤90d 31 -4.0% -13.2% 35% 29% -31.4%
all 31 -4.0% -13.2% 35% 29% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 29% -31.4%
10% -21.5% 29% -38.0%
15% -29.1% 19% -44.0%
20% -36.0% 16% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage24d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $39 −$39 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $14 −$12 -84%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$5 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +180%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$10 +474%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$4 +104%
Will Mexico win the World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -56%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $8 −$2 -26%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $46 −$5 -10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -75%
Will Iraq reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 +$11 +43%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 44m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $39 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $13 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $26 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 8d
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records