Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6E
0x6e0c…3b0a
politics · 31 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage264d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 1 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $28 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 06 $28 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Oct 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 29 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 28 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $29 $0 +1%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 26 $4 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $29 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 29% $0
other 28% +$2
world 19% −$1
sports 10% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $31 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $28 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $13 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $15 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $11 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $17 46h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $28 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 3d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? SELL No 98¢ $28 251d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? BUY No 98¢ $28 251d
Iran Nuke in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $29 251d
Iran Nuke in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $29 252d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 98¢ $28 252d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 98¢ $28 252d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 252d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 253d
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $29 253d
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $29 254d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 255d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 255d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $29 255d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $29 256d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 256d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 256d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $28 256d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $28 257d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 95¢ $28 257d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 257d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? SELL No 92¢ $29 257d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 30 +0.1% -9.5% 37% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.27 · official $31.27 (match) · 97 history records