Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:14:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e09…be82 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$6
other 16% −$1
politics 11% $0
crypto 4% +$1
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 30% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 22 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 22 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 0% -10.4%
all 39 -3.6% -12.7% 36% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -10.2%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage270d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 68¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $34 −$1 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $22 −$6 -25%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $79 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $61 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $46 −$3 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $42 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $134 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 26 $1 $0 -15%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Oct 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Oct 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Oct 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $35 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $37 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $31 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $34 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $4 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $30 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $22 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $8 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $23 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 19¢ $17 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $14 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $8 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.12 · official $37.12 (match) · 158 history records