trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 20¢ | 19¢ | $59 | $56 | −$3 (-5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $36 | −$13 | -35% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 10 | $69 | +$42 | +61% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $101 | +$95 | +93% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $61 | −$21 | -33% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 27 | $29 | +$2 | +6% |
| Hurricanes vs. Canadiens | May 26 | $58 | +$34 | +59% |
| LoL: Team Heretics vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season | May 26 | $102 | +$98 | +96% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Apr 18 | $189 | +$6 | +3% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | Apr 18 | $52 | −$13 | -25% |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Apr 16 | $185 | +$93 | +50% |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Apr 14 | $38 | −$38 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Mar 16 | $100 | +$3 | +3% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +13.2% | +2.4% | 50% | 50% | +16.0% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +35.2% | +22.4% | 71% | 57% | +37.5% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +14.9% | +3.9% | 67% | 42% | +16.0% |
| all | 12 | +14.9% | +3.9% | 67% | 42% | +16.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +3.9% | 42% | +16.0% |
| 10% | -6.0% | 42% | +4.9% |
| 15% | -15.1% | 42% | -5.2% |
| 20% | -23.4% | 42% | -14.5% |