Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6E
0x6e05…e226
sports · 13 markets active 2h ago
8.0score
+$259 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$288 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$56
Realized+$288
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage98d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 1 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$30
14 days+$104
30 days+$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $59 $56 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $36 −$13 -35%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $69 +$42 +61%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $61 −$21 -33%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $29 +$2 +6%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $58 +$34 +59%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 26 $102 +$98 +96%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $189 +$6 +3%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $52 −$13 -25%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $185 +$93 +50%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 14 $38 −$38 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 86% +$303
world 9% +$3
other 5% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 12¢ $23 42h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 18¢ $36 43h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 38¢ $111 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 22¢ $69 3d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 14¢ $41 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs $16 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs $18 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 15¢ $11 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 15¢ $4 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 10¢ $10 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $39 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 17d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens SELL Canadiens 46¢ $92 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 17d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 25¢ $9 17d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 25¢ $0 17d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 25¢ $0 17d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 25¢ $1 17d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 25¢ $14 17d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 33¢ $4 17d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 33¢ $22 17d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 33¢ $4 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +13.2% +2.4% 50% 50% +16.0%
≤30d 7 +35.2% +22.4% 71% 57% +37.5%
≤90d 12 +14.9% +3.9% 67% 42% +16.0%
all 12 +14.9% +3.9% 67% 42% +16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 42% +16.0%
10% -6.0% 42% +4.9%
15% -15.1% 42% -5.2%
20% -23.4% 42% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.40 · official $56.25 (match) · 64 history records