Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e05…179a sports 194 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$277 (-9%) realized −$283 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%93W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$41
14 days−$189
30 days−$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$295
other 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +38.2% +25.0% 53% 53% -4.1%
≤30d 189 +14.3% +3.4% 49% 46% -16.5%
≤90d 189 +14.3% +3.4% 49% 46% -16.5%
all 189 +14.3% +3.4% 49% 46% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.4% 46% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -6.5% 44% -24.5%
15% -15.5% 40% -31.8%
20% -23.8% 31% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$283
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses93 / 96
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions5
Markets (closed)189 / 194
History coverage19d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner LYON 48¢ 100¢ $20 $42 +$22 (+108%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Team Liquid 40¢ 44¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner RED Canids 36¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner RED Canids 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs RED Canids 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Eintracht Spandau 36¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Astralis 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner JD Gaming 32¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA 56¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Anyones Legend 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner GAM Esports 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Cloud9 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs Eintracht Spandau 40¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 3 Winner Ozarox Esports 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner Partizan Sangal 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner BIG 51¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner BIG 57¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs JD Gaming 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Fluxo W7M 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Anubis Gaming 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 59¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner EDward Gaming 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Team WE 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$17 -94%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$16 +51%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $29 +$11 +38%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $37 −$4 -12%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$20 -80%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -32%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $10 −$5 -46%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$25 +80%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$5 +55%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$10 +41%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$12 +174%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $57 −$5 -9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$25 -70%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 +$8 +66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 +$11 +34%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1843%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $14 −$12 -85%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $3 −$1 -33%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$4 +51%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$9 +88%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$6 +276%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$10 +166%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $34 −$3 -9%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $13 +$8 +64%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $20 +$9 +44%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $5 +$11 +218%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$1 -33%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$2 +197%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +61%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$1 -15%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$2 +39%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$19 +237%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $8 −$2 -20%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $9 +$3 +36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$9 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $13 −$4 -28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$5 +510%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $9 −$8 -88%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$1 -13%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 38¢ $15 4m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 48¢ $19 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 50¢ $1 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 3¢ $1 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 31¢ $6 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 58¢ $12 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $5 2h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY RED Canids 27¢ $10 4h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY RED Canids 12¢ $1 4h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY RED Canids 24¢ $2 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY RED Canids 26¢ $5 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY RED Canids 32¢ $6 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY RED Canids 37¢ $7 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY RED Canids 48¢ $15 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $15 5h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner SELL Solary 99¢ $40 5h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 9¢ $1 5h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 78¢ $4 5h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 25¢ $5 5h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 79¢ $37 5h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 38¢ $20 5h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 36¢ $12 5h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 72¢ $25 5h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 72¢ $4 5h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 31¢ $10 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 59¢ $26 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL RED Canids 60¢ $6 6h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 41¢ $2 6h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 41¢ $2 6h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 41¢ $21 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.39 · official $64.39 (match) · 683 history records