Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6e03…20b3 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$128 (+58%) realized +$125 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +102% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip
Net edge+56%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$211
other 7% −$6
sports 5% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+83.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +102.4% +83.2% 47% 47% +82.2%
≤30d 17 +102.4% +83.2% 47% 47% +82.2%
≤90d 17 +102.4% +83.2% 47% 47% +82.2%
all 17 +102.4% +83.2% 47% 47% +82.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +83.2% 47% +82.2%
10% ← realistic here +65.6% 41% +64.7%
15% +49.6% 41% +48.8%
20% +35.0% 41% +34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +101% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +102% · $-wt +101% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +257% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$5 · ×6.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.78 per $1 lost it wins $5.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$125
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 41¢ 62¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$118 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$95 +1775%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$16 +312%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 18h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 37¢ $10 18h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 41¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.62 · official $7.62 (match) · 35 history records