Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e03…dd32 other 174 markets active 5h ago coverage 1218d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$35,361 (-6%) realized −$35,164 · open −$197
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate72%122W / 47L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,665per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$2,514now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$5,548
other 32% −$30,898
politics 18% −$7,400
crypto 8% −$1,589
tech 3% −$1,709
sports 0% −$1,969
finance 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -74.2% -76.7% 25% 0% -8.1%
all 169 -10.2% -18.7% 72% 25% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 25% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 15% -23.1%
15% -33.6% 9% -30.5%
20% -40.1% 5% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$3,996) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$365 vs −$1,753 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1218d coverage
Net worth$2,514
Realized−$35,164
Unrealized−$197
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses122 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)169 / 174
History coverage1218d
Avg bet$3,665
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 93¢ $1,302 $1,427 +$125 (+10%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $400 $375 −$25 (-6%)
California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30? No 87¢ 97¢ $228 $253 +$25 (+11%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? No 59¢ 26¢ $559 $242 −$317 (-57%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 84¢ 82¢ $210 $205 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 12 $15 −$5 -32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 02 $27 −$27 -99%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 19 $3,372 +$108 +3%
Will Peter be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar M Jan 12 $132 +$18 +14%
Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2025? Jan 12 $600 +$114 +19%
New pandemic in 2025? Jan 12 $2,244 +$397 +18%
Will Steve be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Jan 12 $5,512 +$6 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 12 $8,783 +$672 +8%
HCL Million Dollar Marathon: Alan Keating VPIP above 70%? Dec 03 $116 +$38 +33%
Will Nik Airball be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million D Dec 03 $125 +$2 +2%
Will Steve be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar M Dec 03 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Senor Tilt be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dol Dec 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 12 $5,500 +$1,815 +33%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Oct 30 $1,994 −$1,994 -100%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Sep 03 $2,278 +$342 +15%
Will MrBeast raise between $40m and $41m by midnight? Sep 01 $7,584 −$7,584 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26? Aug 27 $59 +$33 +56%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a success Aug 27 $780 −$765 -98%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode? Aug 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 08 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? Aug 08 $393 +$2,416 +614%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July? Aug 08 $2,552 +$407 +16%
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison? Jul 05 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump end DOGE in 2025? Jun 07 $2,447 −$2,447 -100%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 18 $2 +$3 +207%
Liberals win majority in Canadian election? May 18 $2,417 +$4,067 +168%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $19,591 −$11,710 -60%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $6,465 +$71 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? Mar 31 $88 −$88 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? Mar 31 $244 −$244 -100%
Did Kanye sell his twitter account? Mar 24 $7,156 +$560 +8%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 reach space? Mar 07 $65 +$2 +3%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy? Mar 07 $843 +$42 +5%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Mar 02 $1,360 +$2,640 +194%
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days? Feb 27 $492 −$492 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Feb 23 $360 +$35 +10%
Will Kanye tweet between 200-249 times February 8-14? Feb 15 $3,528 +$193 +6%
Will Biden resign before inauguration? Jan 22 $360 +$20 +6%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 22 $1,330 +$70 +5%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 22 $4,103 +$367 +9%
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024? Jan 01 $5,124 +$140 +3%
Roaring Kitty charged in 2024? Jan 01 $398 +$73 +18%
Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2 Jan 01 $572 +$540 +94%
Martin Shkreli jail in 2024? Jan 01 $1,417 +$107 +8%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? Jan 01 $5,200 +$236 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Jan 01 $3,189 +$419 +13%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Jan 01 $21,932 +$2,749 +12%
Will five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer sp Dec 16 $1,071 −$851 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $416 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 53d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 53d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 53d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 72¢ $6 53d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $10 53d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $24 53d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $365 64d
California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $229 64d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 64d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $19 65d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $22 65d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $7 65d
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $873 94d
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? BUY No 59¢ $559 118d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY No 84¢ $210 118d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $3,372 146d
Will Nik Airball be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million D SELL No 76¢ $95 202d
Will Nik Airball be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million D SELL No 80¢ $32 202d
Will Nik Airball be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million D BUY No 84¢ $17 202d
Will Nik Airball be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million D BUY No 87¢ $4 202d
Will Nik Airball be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million D BUY No 75¢ $75 202d
Will Nik Airball be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million D BUY No 72¢ $29 202d
Will Steve be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar BUY No 100¢ $5,512 202d
Will Peter be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar M BUY No 88¢ $132 202d
Will Steve be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar M BUY Yes 11¢ $55 202d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,514.03 · official $2,514.03 (match) · 848 history records