Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:29:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6D
0x6dff…e1bd
other · 244 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
−$2,136 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,136 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$110
Realized−$2,136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses97 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)241 / 244
History coverage836d
Avg bet$816
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 3 History 241 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$256
14 days+$163
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Jake Knapp finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 +$28 +14%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 07 $1,006 +$114 +11%
Will Eric Cole win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 31 $201 −$93 -46%
Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $106 −$70 -66%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $53 +$59 +111%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 25 $302 +$80 +26%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 25 $302 −$11 -4%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 23 $103 −$102 -99%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $104,848 $0 +0%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $5,304 +$85 +2%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $1,906 −$43 -2%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $2,001 +$18 +1%
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $113 −$97 -86%
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $2,002 +$38 +2%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $51 −$49 -94%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $103 −$88 -86%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $102 +$12 +12%
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Jake Knapp finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will NFT #650 win the Based trading competition? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Valero Texas Open? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chris Gotterup be the highest finishing debutant at the 2026 Mast May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Valero Texas Open? May 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will David Lipsky win the 2026 Valspar Championship? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Valspar Championship? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 61% −$77
other 31% −$840
sports 4% −$326
crypto 2% −$646
world 2% −$102
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$132
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $229 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $10 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $90 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 39h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 39h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd SELL No 89¢ $1,120 5d
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd BUY No 89¢ $502 6d
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd BUY No 71¢ $504 7d
Will Eric Cole win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? SELL No 44¢ $108 13d
Will Eric Cole win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? BUY No 80¢ $201 13d
Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 14d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 0¢ $1 18d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 7¢ $36 18d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL No 46¢ $112 18d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY No 20¢ $53 19d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 2¢ $21 19d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 18¢ $106 19d
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY No 93¢ $200 19d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY No 100¢ $100 20d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY No 100¢ $100 20d
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY No 60¢ $101 20d
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +10.7% +0.2% 71% 71% +6.3%
≤30d 26 -21.6% -29.0% 46% 31% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -19.5% -27.2% 34% 27% -9.7%
all 241 -18.1% -25.9% 40% 26% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 26% -10.5%
10% -33.0% 20% -19.1%
15% -39.4% 14% -26.9%
20% -45.4% 10% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.54 · official $109.54 (match) · 649 history records