Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6dfc…21a1 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$283
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -36.6% -42.6% 42% 32% -29.3%
≤30d 19 -36.6% -42.6% 42% 32% -29.3%
≤90d 19 -36.6% -42.6% 42% 32% -29.3%
all 19 -36.6% -42.6% 42% 32% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 32% -29.3%
10% -48.1% 21% -36.1%
15% -53.1% 5% -42.3%
20% -57.7% 0% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$42 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$11 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $206 −$105 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $208 +$67 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $138 +$59 +42%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 15-21? Jun 21 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $6 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $275 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records