Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6D 0x6df7…afb0 other 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30,019 (-48%) realized −$28,152 · open −$1,867
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate25%33W / 97L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$415per market
Trades / day34.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$2,423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$172
7 days−$1,598
14 days−$15,621
30 days−$16,139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$16,701
economics 1% −$758
sports 0% −$70
finance 0% +$11
tech 0% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -72.9% -75.5% 15% 12% -85.7%
≤30d 67 -19.3% -27.0% 18% 13% -73.5%
≤90d 130 +40.2% +26.9% 25% 18% -38.6%
all 130 +40.2% +26.9% 25% 18% -38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.9% 18% -38.6%
10% ← realistic here +14.7% 16% -44.5%
15% +3.7% 15% -49.9%
20% -6.5% 12% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +130% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$606 vs −$368 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$2,423
Realized−$28,152
Unrealized−$1,867
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses33 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions71
Markets (closed)130 / 152
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$415
Trades / day34.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 71 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $57 $396 +$338 (+589%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 22¢ $57 $323 +$266 (+463%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $57 $261 +$204 (+355%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $115 $187 +$72 (+63%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $114 $125 +$11 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $57 $118 +$61 (+105%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $72 $97 +$25 (+35%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 15¢ 36¢ $38 $91 +$54 (+143%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $77 $90 +$12 (+16%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $148 $81 −$67 (-45%)
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $90 $75 −$15 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $61 $56 −$5 (-8%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $57 $35 −$22 (-39%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $176 $30 −$146 (-83%)
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16 $23 +$7 (+44%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $63 $22 −$41 (-65%)
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $27 $20 −$7 (-25%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 34¢ 92¢ $7 $18 +$12 (+172%)
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-20%)
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $126 $12 −$113 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$4 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $31 +$43 +140%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $624 −$592 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $742 −$742 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $69 +$31 +46%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the US lose between 0 and 50k jobs in April? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the US lose more than 50k jobs in April? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $37 −$19 -50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $1,682 −$1,647 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $2,023 −$2,014 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $63 +$37 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $761 −$427 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 11 $67 +$250 +372%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 11 $68 −$3 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 11 $193 −$87 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 11 $369 −$74 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 11 $290 +$10 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 11 $3,243 −$2,656 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 11 $75 −$21 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 11 $58 −$31 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 11 $50 −$13 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 11 $273 −$202 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 11 $94 −$72 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 11 $1,050 −$966 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 11 $394 −$59 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 11 $495 −$34 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 11 $1,024 −$874 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 11 $557 −$112 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 11 $46 −$24 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 11 $587 −$115 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 6m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,498 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $78 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $40 21h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $36 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $6 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $47 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $9 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $68 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $19 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $22 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $14 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $84 3d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $349 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,423.41 · official $2,423.47 (match) · 3500 history records